India frontloads US shipments as tariff threat looms

In September, Indian exporters sent $8.02 bn worth of goods to the United States, a 48% year‑on‑year increase. The surge began in July and reflects companies moving orders forward ahead of a possible 100% tariff that could be imposed under the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. The move follows earlier US duties of 50% that took effect in August 2025.

Key facts

• September US exports rose 48% YoY to $8.02 bn.
• April‑Sept US exports grew 11.11% to $50.81 bn.
• US imposed 50% duties on Indian goods in August 2025.
• The Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act allows up to 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil.
• US gave a 30‑day window for major Russian‑oil buyers to reduce purchases or seek a waiver.

Background to the tariff threat

Washington has launched a Section 301 investigation into Indian trade practices, alleging excess manufacturing capacity that harms US industry. The investigation runs alongside a separate probe into forced‑labour inputs, which led to a 10% tariff on Indian goods in July.

Separately, the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, signed into law on September 18, provides for tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil or gas. It includes a 30‑day window for major buyers, such as India, to cut purchases or apply for a national‑interest waiver before tariffs are applied.

Earlier US actions included a 50% duty on Indian goods that came into force in late August 2025, which contributed to a 12.58% YoY drop in September 2025 exports to the US.

What this means for exporters and importers in Punjab

Exporters in Punjab and North India may face a 100% tariff if the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act is applied, which could affect the cost structure of US‑bound shipments. Companies should monitor the upcoming US announcement and be prepared to adjust pricing or explore alternative markets.

Importers of US goods, especially petroleum products, electronics and computer hardware, are seeing a sharp rise in shipments (petroleum imports up 209% YoY). Higher import volumes could influence purchase costs and may be subject to additional US‑origin duties.

What you can do now

• Check the HS codes of your US‑bound products with your customs broker to assess potential Section 301 duties.
• Discuss with freight forwarders the possibility of securing space now for September‑October shipments before capacity tightens.
• Consider adding a tariff‑risk clause in export contracts to share any future US duties with buyers.
• Monitor announcements from Washington on the 30‑day waiver window and be ready to adjust order volumes accordingly.